Social Security will not “go broke.” But unless Congress acts, it will not be able to pay full benefits in about six years.
On June 9, 2026, the Social Security Trustees released their annual report. It projects that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund, which pays retirement and survivor benefits, will be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032. That is one quarter earlier than last year’s projection.
What “Depleted” Actually Means
Social Security is funded mainly by payroll taxes on current workers. When the trust fund reserves run out, those taxes keep coming in. The Trustees project ongoing income would cover about 78% of scheduled benefits once OASI is depleted. Without action, that means an across-the-board cut of roughly 22%, growing over time toward 38% by 2100.
For a retiree receiving $2,000 a month, a 22% reduction would mean about $440 less every month.
The Combined Fund: 2034
If the retirement fund were combined with the Disability Insurance fund, the Trustees project the combined funds could pay full benefits until the third quarter of 2034, then about 83% of benefits. That combination is not automatic. It would take an act of Congress.
Why the Date Moved Up
According to the Bipartisan Policy Center and CBO, the shift is largely due to the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which included provisions lowering taxes for many Social Security beneficiaries. Part of the income tax collected on benefits flows back into the trust funds, so lower taxes on benefits mean less trust fund revenue. The report also shows reserves fell by $160 billion in 2025, and program costs now exceed income.
The Options in Front of Congress
Every serious fix involves some combination of the same levers:
- Revenue: raise the payroll tax rate, or raise or remove the cap on wages subject to the tax
- Benefits: adjust the benefit formula, the cost-of-living calculation, or the full retirement age
- Transfers: move general revenue into the trust funds
- Investment: change how reserves are invested
The longer Congress waits, the larger and more sudden the changes must be. The last major reform, in 1983, came just months before benefits would have been delayed.
What You Can Do Now
- Create a my Social Security account at ssa.gov and check your earnings record for errors.
- Ask candidates in the upcoming election which of the levers above they would support. “I will protect Social Security” is not a plan.
- Read the Trustees Report summary yourself. It is short and written for the public.
Keep Digging With Truth Agent
This article is a starting point. Truth Agent puts the public record at your fingertips, including the Constitution, federal law, regulations, court opinions and oversight reports, so you can follow the Trustees Reports and every Social Security bill in Congress without relying on anyone’s summary, including ours.
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